Is the Euro Preparing to Turn Lower?

Is the Euro Preparing to Turn Lower?

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: BEARISH

  • Euro testing trend resistance set from January 2018 once again
  • Candlestick patterns on daily, four-hour charts point to topping
  • Sellers may wait for a near-term support break to bet in earnest

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The Euro is once again testing resistance guiding the move lower from January 2018 against the US Dollar. The appearance of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern hints that a turn lower may be brewing ahead. Support guiding the upswing form mid-February remains intact however, so confirmation of even a near-term pullback is absent for now.

Euro vs US Dollar chart - daily

A look at the four-hour chart seems to bolster the case for topping. Back to back bearish candlestick patterns are reinforced by negative RSI divergence, pointing to ebbing upside momentum and setting the stage for a breakdown. As with the daily chart however, prices are sitting immediately atop unbroken near-term support. Sellers might find this unattractive on risk/reward and confirmation grounds.

Euro vs US Dollar chart - 4 hour

That means bearish commitment may be absent without a further catalyst – like disappointing economic data, for example – to force prices through support. It may likewise imply substantial pent up interest on the short side waiting for a conclusive break to pounce however. That might mean that when (and if) support is breached, follow-through might be meaningful.

An initial push below the 1.1366-71 area would expose a minor chart barrier at 1.1321, but a true test of lasting bearish conviction probably calls for descent to the 1.1216-34 zone. This marks the floor on the choppy range in play since mid-November. A daily close below it might mark the start of the next leg in the structural, long-term downtrend. Overall trend resistance is now at 1.1430.


— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

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