Yesterday’s strong sell-off in the Euro could finally bring with it some momentum as long as we don’t see a sudden snap-back rally as it has in recent months. AUDUSD is sitting on neckline support of a head-and-shoulders pattern, a break below will kick off renewed weakness. Gold is bouncing, but at risk of rolling back over soon – watch how price action plays out today into early next week.
- EURUSD’s sharp break may continue if buyers don’t immediately show
- AUDUSD could break the neckline of H&S pattern in days ahead
- Gold bounce has resistance already in sight, roll-over risk high
See where our team of analysts see your favorite markets and currencies headed in the weeks ahead in the Q1 Trading Forecasts.
EURUSD’s sharp break may continue if buyers don’t immediately show
Yesterday finally brought with it a serious move in the Euro as well as a break below the November low. This has the underside parallel of a channel YTD in focus, but not viewed as the biggest level of support given it is in the direction of the trend. The sequence for the past few months has been for sharp moves in either direction to get reversed quickly, should that not happen this time around then look for EURUSD to continue lower towards 11100 or worse.
EURUSD Daily Chart (how will it respond, big spot)
Check out the Q1 Euro Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
AUDUSD could break the neckline of H&S pattern in days ahead
AUDUSD is threatening to break the neckline of the head-and-shoulders patter in place since January. With price sitting on the neckline now, it could come at any time now. Should it snap, then look for Aussie to roll down and test the air pocket created during the flash-crash on Jan 2.
AUDUSD Daily Chart (H&S on the verge of breaking)
Gold bounce has resistance already in sight, roll-over risk high
Gold is lifting from oversold conditions, but it may be short-lived as downward momentum off the Feb high has been strong. There is already resistance in play via the top-side parallel created from a channel back in the summer/fall time. It was most recently used as support in January but now viewed as material hurdle to overcome. Even if gold rises above the slope, the area just over 1300 is also viewed as significant. The broader downside target remains set in the 1255/45-area.
Check out the Q1 Gold Forecast to see our analysts’ intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.
Gold Daily Chart (Upper parallel, low-1300s)
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX