– The RBNZ will maintain a dovish tone this week, and rates markets aren’t looking for any change in policy through August 2019.
– The final Q4’18 US GDP reading is due this week, but traders may be more interested in the January Canadian GDP report to see how the oil rebound has filtered through into the global economy.
– UK Prime Minister Theresa May has one last chance to try and get her EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement passed through UK parliament.
Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.
03/27 WEDNESDAY | 01:00 GMT | NZD RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND RATE DECISION
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s March meeting this week may come and go without anyone noticing much of anything along the policy front. The backdrop of the Q4’18 New Zealand GDP report that was released on March 20, which showed growth in at 2.3% y/y, slightly lower than the 2.6% y/y rate seen in Q3’18, suggests a slowing economy – much in line with what’s been seen across the developed world. At 1.9% y/y, headline inflation in New Zealand currently sits just below the mid-range of the medium-term 1-3% target.It should come as little surprise, then, that rates markets are pricing in a mere 0.5% chance of a move this week.
Read the full report: March RBNZ Meeting & NZDUSD Price Outlook
03/28 THURSDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (4Q T)
Growth expectations for the final Q4’18 US GDP have been tempered thanks to the shutdown. The US Congressional Budget Office estimated that the economy lost at least -0.1% of GDP last quarter and -0.2% in Q1’19 as a result of the shutdown. The NYFed Nowcasting estimate sees growth due in at a more modest 2.6% annualized. Meanwhile, the consensus forecast, according to Bloomberg News, calls for headline growth in at 2.4%.
Read the full report: Final Q4’18 US GDP & USDJPY Price Outlook
03/28 THURSDAY | 13:00 GMT | EUR GERMAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (MAR P)
The European Central Bank has recently announced that it will renew its TLTRO program later this year, and there may be the near-term conditions for the decline in inflation readings to level off. Energy prices have been stable for the past month (Brent Oil -0.1% past month), and the trade-weighted Euro (-4.2% since March 22, 2018) has proved soft. The upcoming preliminary German Consumer Price Index on Thursday may confirm this theory, where headline CPI is due in at 0.6% from 0.4% (m/m), and 1.5% (y/y) (unchanged from the final February reading).
Read the full report: March German CPI & EUR/JPY Price Outlook
03/24-29 MONDAY TO FRIDAY | EXACT DATE/TIME UNKNOWN | GBP THIRD BREXIT VOTE
UK PM May said in a letter to UK parliament on Friday night: “If it appears that there is not sufficient support to bring the deal back next week, or the House (of Commons) rejects it again, we can ask for another extension before 12 April – but that will involve holding European Parliament elections.” In other words, the third Brexit vote may not be held at all.
Read the full report: Third Brexit Vote & GBPJPY Price Outlook
03/29 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (JAN)
The first batch of growth data for Canadian growth is due this week, and it should come as a relief to Bank of Canada policymakers. After all, December GDP came in at a mere 1.1% y/y and Q4’18 GDP came in at 0.4% annualized, largely due to the sharp decline in energy prices last quarter (oil directly impacts nearly 11% of the Canadian economy). With Crude Oil prices rising by 18.5% in January, there was likely a positive impact on Canadian growth.Looking at data trends during January, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for Canada gained from 11.1 to 43.7. Accordingly, Bloomberg News is looking for the yearly growth rate to pick back up to 1.5% in January from 1.1% in December.
Read the full report: January Canadian GDP & USDCAD Price Outlook
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— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org