Gold Prices Risk Larger Pullback as Fed Defends Wait-and-See Approach

Gold Prices Risk Larger Pullback as Fed Defends Wait-and-See Approach


Gold Price Talking Points

Gold pulls back from the monthly-high ($1324) as the Federal Reserve defends its wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and the precious metal continue to consolidate over the remainder of the month as the price for bullion fails to extend the recent series of higher highs & lows.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Gold Prices Risk Larger Pullback as Fed Defends Wait-and-See Approach

Image of daily change for gold prices

The near-term advance in gold appears to be stalling ahead of April, with month/quarter-end flows raising the risk for choppy price action, and fresh comments from Fed officials appear to be dampening the appeal of the precious metal as the central bank curbs bets for an imminent rate-cut.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly insists that the ‘appropriate policy is being patient’ amid the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, and went onto say that the benchmark interest rate is at ‘ a stone’s throw of neutral’ after implementing four rate-hikes in 2018. At the same time, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan argued that the central bank needs to see ‘an inversion of some magnitude and/or some duration’ in the yield curve for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to switch gears, and it seems as though Fed officials will continue to strike a balanced tone ahead of the next meeting in May amid growing accusations of a policy error.

Image of fed fund futures

Nevertheless, market participants appear to be unconvinced by the recent remarks as Fed Fund Futures now reflect a greater than 70% probability for a December rate-cut, and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may continue to adjust the forward-guidance over the coming months as the central bank plans to wind down the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT).

With that said, looming changes in Fed policy may shore up gold prices throughout 2019, but recent price action warns of range-bound conditions going into the end of the month/quarter as bullion snaps the recent series of higher highs & lows. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of gold daily chart

  • Broader outlook for gold remains constructive as the pullback from the February-high ($1347) fails to produce a test of the 2019-low ($1277), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
  • However, the advance from the March-low ($1281) appears to have stalled ahead of the Fibonacci overlap around $1328 (50% expansion) to $1329 (50% expansion), with the lack of momentum to hold above the $1315 (23.6% retracement) to $1316 (38.2% expansion) region raising the risk for a move back towards $1298 (23.6% retracement) to $1302 (50% retracement).
  • Next downside area of interest comes in around $1289 (23.6% expansion) followed by the $1279 (38.2% retracement) region.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.



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