Archive May 2019

Gold Prices Rise as US Dollar Fails to Capitalize on Market Selloff


  • Gold prices rise as yields drop in risk-off trade, US Dollar slips on PMI data
  • Crude oil prices see largest daily drop yet in 2019 on growth, trade war fears
  • Corrective risk recovery may struggle for momentum, US durables data due

Gold prices rushed higher as bond yields dropped amid deterioration in market-wide risk appetite, boosting the comparative appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives. Haven-seeking demand for the US Dollar has constrained similar moves recently but the benchmark currency was unable to capitalize this time around as disappointing PMI data stoked Fed rate cut speculation.

Crude oil prices plunged, recording the largest one-day drop so far this year. The bellwether WTI contract fell alongside S&P 500 futures throughout the trading day, pointing to a dour turn in prevailing sentiment trends as the catalyst at work. That followed from swelling worries about the impact of a prolonged US-China trade war on global economic growth and – by extension – oil demand.


April’s US Durable Goods Orders data takes top billing on an otherwise quiet economic calendar through the end of the trading week. The markets’ violent reaction to yesterday’s soft PMI results may portend more of the same if this reading disappoints. As it happens, US data outcomes have tended to undershoot forecasts recently, warning about the elevated probability of just such an outcome.

Signs of weakness may sustain the risk-off drive into the weekly close, pushing oil lower still while gold extends upward. The miss will probably need to be substantial to overcome corrective flows as investors rebalance portfolios toward neutral ahead of a weekend prolonged by the Memorial Day holiday in the US. That is likely to degrade liquidity, amplifying already elevated kneejerk volatility risk.

Tellingly, futures tracking Wall Street equity benchmarks are pointing firmly higher in late Asia Pacific trade, reinforcing the sense that a retracement of yesterday’s moves is in the cards. Still, another batch of worrying headlines on the US-China trade war front, signs of eurosceptic triumph in on-going European Parliament elections, or an especially downbeat US durables report might revive liquidation.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!


Gold prices bounced at rising trend line support set from August 2018. Buyers now face resistance capping the upside since late February. A daily close above its outer layer – now at 1297.50 – exposes the 1303.70-09.12 area. This is followed by the 1323.40-26.30 zone. Alternatively, a move below the 1260.80-63.76 region would hit at bearish trend change and set the stage to test the 1235.11-38.00price band.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices sank to support in the 57.24-88 area, setting a three-month low along the way. A daily close below this boundary targets the 55.37-75 zone next. Near-term resistance is in the 60.39-95 region, with a break above that eyeing a dense block of overlapping barriers starting at 63.59 and running to 67.03.

Crude oil price chart - daily


— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

Source link

Has the Euro Bottomed vs US Dollar?

EURUSD Technical Strategy: BEARISH

  • Euro struggling to extend down move below 1.11 mark vs US Dollar
  • Rising wedge pattern, RSI divergence hint a bottom may be forming
  • Daily close above 1.13 needed to neutralize near-term bearish bias

See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your EURUSD trading strategy!

The Euro was unable to find lasting downside momentum on a break of counter-trend line support set from late April lows. Prices spiked lower to test support just above the 1.11 figure against the US Dollar but fell short of securing a breakout, bouncing to retest the 1.1175-86 chart inflection region instead.

EURUSD chart - 4 hour

The bounce still looks broadly corrective and, in any case, the bounds of the dominant near-term downtrend set from September 2018 remain firmly intact. Invalidating that would now require a rally back above the 1.13 figure. Still, sellers’ inability to follow through is noteworthy as broader positioning seems conflicted.

Turning to the daily chart, the outlines of a bullish Falling Wedge formation coupled with positive RSI divergence warn that a rebound may be in the cards. As much is unconfirmed for now and the setup may yet unravel in the bears’ favor. Ongoing EU Parliament elections may be a catalyst one way or the other.

EURUSD chart - daily

A daily close above the wedge top – now at 1.1311 – sets the stage for a test above the 1.14 handle. Immediate support is at 1.1097, marked by a chart inflection point dating back to May 2017 and the wedge bottom. Pushing below that is likely to see the next downside hurdle at 1.1024, another former sticking point.


— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

Source link

Gold Price Weekly Outlook – Looking to Break a Tightening Range

Gold (XAU) Price Weekly Technical Analysis

Gold Price – Is a Short-Term Rebound Building?

The medium-term technical outlook for gold remains for lower prices but within this pattern of lower highs, a short-term move higher cannot be discounted as technical indicators look set to collide. It is likely that a fundamental driver will be in charge of the next move with US-China trade wars, US-Iran tensions and ongoing global growth concerns the likely culprits. Gold has yet to move markedly to increased market risk seen this week, leaving room for a sharp ‘catch-up’ move.

Since February 20, gold has carved out a series four lower highs – the last one at $1,303.6/oz. weighing on the precious metal. This bearish pattern, while still intact, is in danger of being negated as the pattern of lower lows has been broken twice recently, albeit marginally. This combination is now trapping gold in a tightening range where other technical indicators also come into play. To the immediate upside, the downtrend and the 20- and 50-day moving averages converge between $1,282/oz and $1,286/oz. providing short-term resistance just ahead of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,287/oz. A break and close above this cluster may suggest that gold attempts to test the tight $1,301 – $1,304/oz. range. If gold closes above here, the pattern of lower highs is broken and may add to further bullish sentiment.

A tight cluster of old support levels between $1,281 and $1,276.8/oz. guards the 200-day moving average, currently at $1,270.4/oz. and trending higher. This long-term ma has already been tested and held firm at a slightly lower level on Tuesday this week. A break and close below opens the path to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,262.8/oz.

Gold (XAU) Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – May 24, 2019)


How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio: Strategies and Tips.

IG Client Sentimentshows that retail traders are 78.8% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. Recent daily and weekly sentiment shifts however give us a mixed trading bias.

— Written by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Source link

GBPUSD Rate Outlook Mired by Renewed Threat of ’Hard Brexit’

British Pound Rate Talking Points

GBP/USD trades to fresh monthly lows, with U.K. data prints doing little to influence the British Pound, and the Brexit negotiations may continue to drag on the Pound Dollar exchange rate as Prime Minister Theresa May struggles to secure a deal.

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral

The British Pound may continue to get battered even though the economic docket stands fairly light for the last full week of May amid the renewed the threat for a ‘hard Brexit.’

Headlines surrounding Brexit may continue to shake up the near-term outlook for GBP/USD as Prime Minister May lacks support for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, and the ongoing rift between U.K. lawmakers may keep the Bank of England (BoE) on the sidelines even though the Consumer Price Index (CPI) show the reading for inflation climbing to 2.1% from 1.9% per annum in March.

In turn, the British Pound stands at risk of facing headwinds ahead of the next BoE meeting on June 20 as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) insists that ‘the economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of EU withdrawal,’ but the pickup in GBP/USD volatility continues to shake up market participation, with retail sentiment still stretched going into the end of the month.


The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 79.8% of traders are net-long GBP/USD compared to 81.7% earlier this week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.95 to 1. Keep in mind, traders have remained net-long since March 26 when GBP/USD traded near 1.3210 region.

The number of traders net-long is 2.4% lower than yesterday and 6.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.9% higher than yesterday and 16.8% higher from last week. It remains to be seen if the rise in GBP/USD interest will persist going into the final days of May, but the extreme reading in net-long position suggests the retail crowd is still attempting to fade the decline in the Pound Dollar exchange rate as it trades to a fresh monthly low (1.2605).

Keep in mind, the tilted in retail interest offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment especially as GBP/USD snaps the bullish trend from late-2018, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart


The broader outlook for GBP/USD is no longer bullish as the exchange rate snaps the upward trend from late last year after failing to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3310 (100% expansion) to 1.3370 (78.6% expansion).

As a result, the advance from the 2019-low (1.2373) may continue to unravel, with a break/close below the 1.2610 (23.6% retracement) to 1.2640 (38.2% expansion) region opens up the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2370 (50% expansion) to 1.2440 (50% expansion).

Will keep a close eye on the RSI as the oscillator pushes into oversold territory, but a move back above 30 may foreshadow a rebound in GBP/USD as the bearish momentum abates.

Additional Trading Resources

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for GBP/USD

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

Source link

Trade War Weighs on Chinese Tech Stocks, Emerging Markets

Trade War Weighs on Chinese Tech Stocks, Emerging Markets:

Trade War Weighs on Chinese Tech Stocks, Emerging Markets

Chinese equities have faced significant pressure this week after the US-China trade war took a turn into the technology sector. With Huawei under fire from the United States, both US and Chinese tech stocks have displayed weakness as investors weigh the risk of retaliation alongside the immediate impact to the industry. Outside the direct hit to Huawei, component providers ranging from Microsoft to Micron have had their outlooks altered. The impending product ban has seen domestic tech stocks trade lower alongside their Chinese counterparts, weighing on the Shanghai Composite and by extension – emerging markets.

Chinese Large Caps Suffer

Trade War Weighs on Chinese Tech Stocks, Emerging Markets

Chinese internet provider Baidu is among the largest losers, trading 13% lower since July 2018 when the initial tariffs were placed on China. Tencent and Alibaba have also fallen under pressure and are responsible for a sizable portion of the EEM emerging market ETF. The two Chinese tech companies are the first and second largest holdings of single stocks in the EEM ETF at 4.79% and 4.08% respectively. According to iShares, China accounts for 31.37% of the EEM ETF

Trade War Weighs on Chinese Tech Stocks, Emerging Markets

With that in mind, the weight commanded by a few Chinese heavy-weights has translated to weakness in the emerging markets ETF, EEM, which is down -6.8% since July 2018. The FXI ETF, which tracks the 50 largest Chinese stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has faced a similar fate – down roughly -7%.

Shanghai Composite Overlaid with Large Cap Chinese Stocks and the Emerging Markets ETF

Trade War Weighs on Chinese Tech Stocks, Emerging Markets

Interestingly, the Shanghai Composite has been able to climb during the same timeframe, up 2.8% since July 1. That said, it could be argued that large-cap Chinese stocks have born the brunt of the trade war impact as they have greater exposure to the United States and are thereby responsible for the Shanghai Composite’s lackluster return and the weakness in emerging markets. However, when looking at the return for other highly-weighted EEM members, South Korea is an even more egregious laggard.

S&P 500 Overlaid with the Relative Performance of Single-Country Funds to the EEM ETF

Trade War Weighs on Chinese Tech Stocks, Emerging Markets

Although it is not directly in the crosshairs, equity performance would suggest South Korea has been hit in the crossfire of the US-China trade war. A slump in semiconductor demand and deteriorating economic data has seen the EWY ETF, a fund that grants exposure to South Korean equities, trade -18.2% lower in the year-to-date.

Further, the EWY offers the worst relative performance to the EEM ETF when compared to other highly weighted countries. Given its proximity and degree of trade with China, South Korea is likely feeling the pain of slowing Chinese growth – which could accelerate as the trade war drags on.

In the week ahead, further commentary on the trade war will be offered by the release of US advance goods trade balance on Thursday alongside the second print of US GDP. Also, due next week is Chinese manufacturing data on Friday. A poor print could see the weakness in Chinese stocks become more widespread and reflected in the Shanghai Composite, as much of the FXI ETF is made up of technology and financial stocks.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019?

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Source link

Theresa May Announces Resignation, GBPUSD Heading Lower

GBP Analysis and Talking Points

  • Theresa May Announces Departure Date
  • New Leader Expected by End of July

See the DailyFX Q2 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency throughout the quarter.

Theresa May Announces Resignation

Theresa May has announced that she will resign on June 7th but will remain in office until a new Tory leader is found, which will begin the following week and is expected to be concluded by end of July.


The initial reaction saw the Pound jump above 1.2700 against the USD, before quickly retracing back to pre-announced levels. While in the following 5-minutes, the Pound is heading lower.

Most likely Next Conservative Leader, according to UK bookmakers

  • Boris Johnson (6/4)
  • Dominic Raab (6/1)
  • David Lidington (8/1)
  • Andrea Leadsom (10/1)
  • Jeremy Hunt (11/1)
  • Michael Gove (12/1)
  • Sajid Javid (22/1)

How Does a Conservative Party Leadership Work?

The election takes place in two stages. In the first stage, Conservative MPs put their own names forward. MPs will then vote in several rounds to carve down the amount of candidates. In each round, the candidate with the fewest votes will be removed, which continues until there is two left.

In the second stage, the party membership is ballotted on which of the two candidates they prefer.

GBP Bears Beware: Boris as UK Prime Minister Might be Good for Sterling

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

Source link

Bullish Wave 3 Could Carry to 1.35

GBP/USD Elliott Wave Talking Points:

  • GBP/USD has carved a bullish motive wave followed by a three-wave corrective move
  • This could be the first and second wave of a larger pattern that carries to 1.35 and possibly 1.41
  • A move below 1.2635 suspends this longer-term bullish forecast

The technical patterns on GBP/USD have been elusive for the past several months. A small bread crumb of clarity was created as we discovered the potential Elliott wave diagonal pattern forming from the January 2019 low into the March 2019 high. These diagonals either begin a new larger wave or terminate the larger degree trend.

Since this diagonal began at the lowest levels GBPUSD has seen in two years, the higher probability scenario is this pattern is a leading diagonal. Therefore, we await the finishing touches of a partial retracement corrective move.

The current Elliott Wave for GBPUSD

GBP/USD elliott wave forecast is bullish to above 1.35.

Earlier this week, we tweeted about the confluence of tight wave relationships taking place in the 1.26 handle.

The a-b-c corrective pattern has slightly overshot the extreme of the price channel. Additionally, wave ‘c’ is equal to wave ‘a’ near 1.2659…this is a common wave relationship within a corrective Elliott wave zigzag pattern.

Secondarily, the 78.6% retracement level for the rally from the January 2019 low to the March 2019 high crosses near 1.2618. This creates a tight zone of wave relationships which may buoy GBPUSD higher.

From an Elliott wave perspective, it appears the recent wave lower is wave (2) or (B). If correct, then wave (3) or (C) would carry higher with wave relationships appearing at 1.35 and 1.41. The structure and length of the advance will provide us further clues as to the development of the larger Elliott wave pattern.

This view is valid so long as GBP/USD remains above 1.2435.

Below 1.2435 means there is another wave pattern at play.

Learn more about Elliott Wave Theory with the beginner and advanced Elliott wave guides.

—Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy Wagner is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master’s designation. These articles are designed to illustrate Elliott Wave applied to the current market environment. See Jeremy’s bio page for recent Elliott Wave articles to see Elliott Wave Theory in action.

Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader .

Other Elliott wave reports you may be interested in…

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis: Bullish Pattern Emerges

Bullish silver price outlook suggests US Dollar weakness

Source link

Boris as UK Prime Minister Might be Good for Sterling

GBP price, Boris Johnson and Brexit:

  • Former UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is in pole position to take over from Theresa May as the next British Prime Minister.
  • However, traders looking to sell Sterling on the grounds that the risk of a no-deal Brexit would then rise need to be aware that his commitment to leaving on WTO rules could change.
  • The latest reports suggest that Theresa May will step down on June 7.

Theresa May Resigns as PM

It’s official: Theresa May has announced her resignation as UK prime minister, which will trigger new Tory party leadership elections (and potentially a general election). The news comes just as the European parliamentary elections are getting started, which could very likely see a pro-Brexit party serve as the UK’s largest representative bloc entering the new term.

Boris, Brexit and the British Pound

Former British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has become the clear favorite to replace May as both Tory party leader and prime minister. For many traders, that would be a strong signal to sell the British Pound as he is widely seen as a hard-line Brexiteer who would take the UK out of the EU without a deal.

Leaving without an agreement, and reverting to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, is seen widely as negative for Sterling. However, Johnson – known countrywide simply as Boris – has changed his mind on Brexit before and might not be as committed to no-deal as he is sometimes seen.

As the Conservative-leaning magazine The Spectator asked: “Would he govern as a reckless populist, delighting the Tory membership by driving Britain out of the EU without a deal? Or would he carry out a Nixon to China reverse-ferret, pivoting to a softer Brexit position by way of a second referendum or even revoking Article 50 and starting again?

Indeed, Johnson himself has written: We who are part of this narrow majority [in favour of Brexit] must do everything we can to reassure the Remainers. We must reach out, we must heal, we must build bridges – because it is clear that some have feelings of dismay, and of loss, and confusion.”

What Johnson might mean for GBP

His commitment to a no-deal Brexit is therefore not as strong as sometimes portrayed and another “reverse-ferret” – British newspaper slang for reversing your position – cannot be ruled out, meaning there is no guarantee that if he becomes Prime Minister the Pound would extend its recent sharp decline.

GBPUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (December 27, 2018 – May 22, 2019)

Latest GBPUSD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

For sure, there are plenty of reasons why GBP could weaken further, as I pointed out here. However, my recent Twitter poll on which possible successor to May would be best for Sterling put Johnson in second position, just behind the Opposition Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn. To reiterate, selling GBP on a possible Johnson premiership is risky.

Who could become UK Prime Minister?

Turning to the other runners and riders, the chart below shows that Johnson is not just ahead of the field but increased his lead sharply in May.

Odds on next UK prime minister.

Source: Michael McDonough, Bloomberg, on Twitter

According to the Oddscheker website at the time of writing, many betting companies are now quoting Johnson at 2/1 to take over from May. Here are the approximate odds on her other likely Conservative successors:

  • Dominic Raab, 5/1, is a former Brexit Secretary, now no longer in Government, and a Brexiteer. Verdict: negative for GBP.
  • Michael Gove, 10/1, is Environment Secretary and a long-time supporter of a hard Brexit. Verdict: negative for GBP.
  • Jeremy Hunt, 10/1, is Foreign Secretary and campaigned to remain in the EU before changing his mind. Verdict: mildly positive for GBP.
  • Penny Mordaunt, 20/1, is Defense Secretary and campaigned to leave the EU. Verdict: negative for GBP.
  • Matthew Hancock, 20/1, is Health Secretary and a potential centrist candidate. Verdict: neutral for GBP.
  • Sajid Javid, 20/1, is Home Secretary and voted reluctantly to remain in the EU. Verdict: mildly positive for GBP.

Further down the field, two other potential candidates have launched campaign groups: former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey has unveiled a hardline Brexit group Blue Collar Conservatism (GBP negative) while her successor Amber Rudd has launched a centrist Remain group called One Nation (GBP positive).

More to read:

British Pound: What every trader needs to know

Using News and Events to Trade Forex

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

Source link

XAU Defends Yearly Lows– Breakout Levels Defined

Gold prices are poised to close higher on the week after yet another failed attempt to break below long-term technical support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts heading into next week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU USD Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that the, “immediate focus is on the weekly close in relation to the 1275/76 zone.” – a region defined by the yearly opening-range low, the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 advance and the August trendline. XAU/USD briefly tested the yearly low-day close at 1270 before reversing sharply with the advance taking price back into the May open at 1283. Gold is poised to close above this long-term support zone for a sixth consecutive week and keeps the broader short-bias vulnerable while above- focus remains on a break of the monthly opening-range.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold 120min Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAUUSD 120minute

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of an embedded ascending channel formation off the weekly lows. Initial support rests with at 1280 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to the weekly open at 1277.

Topside resistance objectives are eyed at the highlighted trendline confluence around ~1288 and the 61.8% retracement of the monthly decline at 1290 – look for a reaction there. Ultimately a breach / close above the upper parallel / May high-day close at 1296 would be needed to validate a larger reversal in price targeting 1302.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Gold prices have responded to multi-month slope support – the focus remains on a break of the recent consolidation range for broader guidance. From a trading standpoint, the immediate threat is for a larger rebound while above 1277 but look for possible near-term exhaustion near 1290 for a pullback. Ultimately a breach above 1296 is needed to suggest a more significant low may be in place. Weakness below the yearly low-day close at 1270 would mark resumption and shift the focus back towards the 100% extension at 1258.Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU USD Price Chart

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.71 (78.8% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are9.5% lower than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are1.3% higher than yesterday and 4.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Active Trade Setups

– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

Source link

Oil Data Champion Sam Madani Explains Oil Tanker Tracking


– The hashtag that became a trusted symbol of reliable oil industry news

– What oil traders tend to miss when navigating the market

– How oil tanker tracking can assist players in the oil space

Sam Madani is the co-founder of oil tanker tracking service and the #OOTT (Organization of Oil Traders of Twitter). Originally in sales and marketing roles in IT and telecoms, Sam gradually moved into oil trading and specifically tracking oil vessels to provide a useful resource for a range of industry players.

In this edition of our podcast Trading Global Markets Decoded, our host Tyler Yell talks to Sam about how oil tracking can assist oil industry traders in their decision making. Benefit from the oil trading discussion with Sam Madani and listen to the podcast by clicking on the link.





Google Play:

Sam worked within the IT and telecoms industries for the first 20 years of his career and, after stints in sales and marketing, decided to build on the geopolitical knowledge he acquired growing up in the Middle East.

After dabbling in oil trading, he began tracking vessel movements using satellite imagery before launching The site assists oil industry players, from traders to academics, in understanding the latest developments in oil logistics, providing timely data to combat the misinformation that can be abundant in the sector.

The hashtag #OOTT came about when Sam looked to aggregate the news and oil trading strategies on Twitter, and it grew to become a bustling community on the platform. ‘Originally I tweeted and retweeted OOTT, which was a wordplay on OPEC, and other oil institutions started doing it too,’ he explains.

‘Now, you can throw it up on Tweetdeck and follow research, opinions, and news on oil industry developments.’

Using Satellite Imagery for Oil Market Insights

For, reliable satellite imagery is useful for providing statistics as many countries are reluctant to share full information when it comes to oil exports/imports. ‘I’ve seen pretty much every possible thing that countries want to hide,’ Sam says.

He cites Kurdish exports from northern Iraq into Israel as an example of this. ‘When vessels arrive with crude oil, they are instructed to switch off their AIS (Automatic Identification System) transponder, meaning it isn’t well known how much oil is leaving Iraq and entering Israel,’ Sam says. ‘We managed to identify these vessels visually and I started to understand there were other places in the world where we could solve the puzzle through satellite imagery.’

The site is also able to identify storage space and its occupation percentage. ‘We look at the lid of storage tanks, which rise and fall depending on how much oil there is, so you look at the shadow inside the storage tank to see if it’s grown or not.’

Please add a description for the image.

Source: MarineTraffic,

Transparency in the Oil Industry

Sam sees a lack of transparency in the oil market as a big problem. ‘Countries are opting out of the publicly available data run by the International Energy Forum,’ he says. ‘That scares me because these countries themselves say they want a transparent market but then they’re no longer providing any data to it, so it’s up to additional sources to gather this data.

‘That’s what we’re doing, we are that source and we’re trying to cater to a community that can’t normally afford the very expensive data.’

Another problem is a shortage of heavy crude oil. ‘If you look at Venezuela, a country people associate heavy crude with, their production and exports are in a really painful decline and this heavy crude is quite high in demand right now.

‘Given how many products you can make out of heavy crude oil, it’s obvious that’s the first thing clients would want to pick up right now.

‘If you want to expand your economy and infrastructure you’ll need things like asphalt which you get from heavy crude oil.’

Check out Sam’s platforms

You can visit and also follow Sam on Twitter using the handle @TankerTrackers.

Source link