Crude Oil Price Chart and Analysis:
- Crude oil currently respecting both Fibonacci and big figure support.
- US dollar may be volatile with the FOMC rate decision and US NFPs out this week,
A period of calm in the crude oil space with last week’s sharp sell-off being slowly re-traced. Crude oil is currently underpinned by a cluster of support levels including 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $70.56/bbl. along with recent lows and the $70.00/bbl. psychological big figure level.
This stabilization will be welcomed by crude oil speculators who are currently running the largest net-long positions in nearly seven months, according to CFTC data. Speculative longs have nearly doubled since February 8 when oil trade over $10/bbl. lower. The next set of data is released on Friday, May 3.
CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions
Crude oil traders will be closely monitoring the latest FOMC policy meeting later today and the monthly US Labour Report (non-farm payrolls) on Friday. Both these events can move the US dollar sharply, having a knock-on effect on the price of oil which traditionally has an inverse correlation with the greenback.
Crude oil has dropped out of heavily overbought territory and may also find support lower downaround $68.20/bbl. the 200-day moving average. The recent six-month high at $74.88/bbl. may prove elusive in the short-term although any political upheaval or further oil embargoes may fuel a move higher.