ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR
- Both the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit may be at turning points
- Indonesian Rupiah is facing increasing intervention from its central bank
- The Philippine Peso may also be readying to turn course versus the USD
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USD/SGD Technical Outlook
The Singapore Dollar extended its decline against its US counterpart following the break above a key resistance line noted last week. This brought USD/SGD into the near-term psychological barrier between 1.3749 and 1.3774. More broadly, this followed the break above the descending trend line from November of last year, resulting in the creation of a new dominant uptrend. SGD has since weakened over 1.8%.
With that in mind, the Singapore Dollar is facing its next big test, 1.3774 and negative RSI divergence. The latter shows fading upside momentum with prices conveniently sitting at resistance. If both these instances hold, we could be looking at a turn lower towards a couple of rising support lines (red lines on the chart below). Otherwise, resuming the uptrend places 1.3816 as near-term resistance.
USD/SGD Daily Chart
USD/MYR Technical Outlook
Like the Singapore Dollar, the Malaysian Ringgit is facing a similar dilemma when looking at USD/MYR. Following the break above the Falling Wedge bullish reversal pattern back in April, the currency pair rose more than 2.6%. Fundamentally, this has occurred amidst a rate cut from the central bank of Malaysia and an uptick in US-China trade war fears.
The Ringgit thus finds itself sitting right under key resistance at 4.1855 with negative RSI divergence posing as a downside risk. If resistance holds and there is a turn lower, keep an eye on the rising trend line from early April (red line below). Clearing it would then expose former support at 4.1448. Otherwise, additional gains in USD/MYR will face the next psychological barrier between 4.1950 and 4.2000.
USD/MYR Daily Chart
USD/IDR Technical Outlook
Recently, USD/IDR has slowed its ascent following the push above the falling resistance line from December. Keep in mind that the Bank of Indonesia has been frequently expressing its commitment to maintain price stability in the Rupiah and guard it. The presence of multiple Shooting Stars, which are signs of indecision, under 14482 seems to reflect the central bank stepping in to keep the currency stable.
The US Dollar is attempting to push higher against the Indonesian Rupiah, with USD/IDR resistance at 14482 under pressure. Clearing it would expose 14646 and continue upholding the uptrend since the middle of April. On the other hand, gains in IDR would face near-term support at 14435. If that is taken out, that may open the door to testing 14340 thereafter.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
USD/PHP Technical Outlook
Meanwhile, the Philippine Peso has also paused its weakness against the US Dollar with USD/PHP sitting above support at 52.37. This has occurred after the close under the near-term rising support line (red line below). Given confirmation, this may precede a turn lower towards the next psychological barrier around 52.12. Otherwise, resuming gains entails testing 52.73 followed by 52.87.
USD/PHP Daily Chart
**All Charts Created in TradingView
Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!
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— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter