Australian Dollar Recovery May Have Run Out of Steam

Australian Dollar Recovery May Have Run Out of Steam


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TECHNICAL FORECAST: BEARISH

  • AUD bounce brings re-test of Triangle floor support-turned-resistance
  • Overall trend bias still bearish, near-term positioning hints at topping
  • Confirmation of downtrend resumption may set the stage to test 0.67

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The Australian Dollar is retesting support-turned-resistance marking the underside of a broken Descending Triangle chart formation in the 0.6978-0.7021 area. Prices bounced after finding support above the 0.68 figure, marking a bottom with the formation a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and a break of trend line resistance set from the mid-April swing high.

AUDUSD

A push beyond this barrier would cast doubt on the Triangle breakout’s validity as a bearish continuation signal. Neutralizing the near-term downside bias in earnest will probably require a step further to clear downward-sloping resistance capping gains since December 2018, now just above the 0.71 figure. However, zooming into the 4-hour chart hints that upside momentum may already be fading.

AUDUSD put in a dramatic-looking Shooting Star candlestick on a test of resistance at the 0.7008. This coupled with overt negative RSI divergence suggests the move higher has run out of steam. Confirming that the broader downtrend has commenced calls for a break of upward-sloping support guiding gains from late-May lows, now at 0.6951.

AUDUSD

If a bearish reversal does materialize – cementing recent gains as corrective in the context of an ongoing decline – then there seems to be scope for significant follow-on weakness. Initial support lines up in the 0.6827-64 area, running from the January 2016 low to last month’s swing bottom. Triangle setup calls for deeper losses however, implying a measured move to the 0.67 figure.

AUDUSD

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

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