USDPHP Bottoms? USDSGD Downtrend Struggles


ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/MYR, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

  • USDPHP bottoms as anticipated, USDMYR descent turns?
  • USDSGD stuck between key support and resistance levels
  • Indonesian Rupiah cautious gains to continue at slow pace?

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow live coverage for key events listed in the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

USDPHP Technical Outlook

As anticipated, the Philippine Peso weakened against the US Dollar after USDPHP struggled clearing near-term support. That is a range between 51.59 and 51.69 which also encompasses lows achieved back in May 2018. Prices did however struggle clearing immediate resistance around 52.12 on the chart below.

If that area is broken ahead, that would expose 52.37. Otherwise, resuming losses since the middle of May opens the door for another retest of 51.59. For timely fundamental and technical updates on ASEAN currencies, you may follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX.

USDPHP Daily Chart

ASEAN FX Chart Analysis: USDPHP Bottoms? USDSGD Downtrend Struggles

USDMYR Technical Outlook

Against the Malaysian Ringgit, the US Dollar appears to be making a slight reversal to the upside after USDMYR adhered to a near-term rising support line from late April. If it holds, this could lead to a retest of a key psychological barrier between 4.1800 and 4.1855.

On the flip side, falling through the rising trend line (red line below) exposes the next area of support which appears to be around 4.1448. This price, since December, has acted as both support and resistance on multiple occasions. This would also follow the break under the rising trend line from early April (red dashed line).

USDMYR Daily Chart

ASEAN FX Chart Analysis: USDPHP Bottoms? USDSGD Downtrend Struggles

USDSGD Technical Outlook

Meanwhile, USDSGD has made cautious progress to the downside following the break under the rising trend line from the middle of April. Prices have slowed their descent after a key support range between 1.3608 and 1.3616 prevented a breakout to the downside.

This leaves the Singapore Dollar oscillating against its US counterpart, stuck between that and near-term resistance around 1.3658. A breakout to the downside exposes 1.3575 while reversing recent losses opens the door to retesting 1.3774, which is the December 2018 high.

USDSGD Daily Chart

ASEAN FX Chart Analysis: USDPHP Bottoms? USDSGD Downtrend Struggles

USDIDR Technical Outlook

Similar to what we have seen in the Singapore Dollar, the Indonesian Rupiah has also slowed its gains against the Greenback. USDIDR sits just under the late-March high at 14255 which acted as support during the early days of June. This has opened the door to continued cautious progress to the downside until we reach the next area of support around 14155. Otherwise, turning higher exposes the next area of resistance around 14340.

USDIDR Daily Chart

ASEAN FX Chart Analysis: USDPHP Bottoms? USDSGD Downtrend Struggles

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

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— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter





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AUD Bulls Can’t Count on the RBA, But Iron Ore Prices May Slow Its Fall


Australian Dollar, Iron Ore Prices Talking Points

  • The Australian Dollar lacks monetary policy support and will for some time
  • However, its home nation’s key commodity export is in brisk demand
  • This probably won’t save the currency, but it may very well act as parachute and slow its decline

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The Australian Dollar remains stuck in an entrenched downtrend on its daily chart, but at least one prop seems to be strengthening markedly: iron ore prices.

Tech may rule the headlines but, when it comes to the global real economy, we still live in the iron age and Australia is the world’s number one exporter of the industrial staple. Moreover, prices have risen sharply this year, by more than 50%. Supply has tightened, a process exacerbated by a fatal dam collapse at Brazil’s Córrego do Feijãomine near the village of Brumadinho in January and indeed by cyclones in Australia.

Already over $99/tonne, some analysts think the commodity’s price could hit $120 this year according to a Reuters report. It seems that incipient trade war has done very little so far to dent demand for ore, with key Chinese dockside inventories falling sharply.

The days when higher ore prices could shore up the Australian Dollar on their own are long gone, as a look at the AUD/USD chart over the past year will prove.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart

Lack of Interest Rate Support is in the AUD/USD Price

The true gravity of this market is no longer commodity prices but rather interest rate comparisons and here the Australian Dollar is clearly still feeling the strain. Lat year’s falls came as US interest rates rose. That process may very well be over but there’s no respite for the Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its Official Cash Rate to a new record low of 1.25% last month. It’s expected to cut again very soon and, perhaps to continue into next year. Deep cuts may be less certain than the markets believe, but another one, at least does seem likely.

However, a lot of this bearish news is already priced in by now to a market well used to a complete lack of monetary policy support. A sharp rise in iron ore prices probably cannot turn around the Australian Dollar’s fortunes on its own, especially while broad domestic inflation remains weak. But they do still bear close watching.

If iron ore does become durably more costly from here, AUD/USD’s pace of decline could be seriously slowed. If 2019 is a better year for Aussie bulls than its predecessor, iron ore prices are likely to be one key reason why.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!





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Australian Dollar Slips As China May CPI Rate Hits 15-Month High


Australian Dollar, Chinese Inflation Data, Australian Consumer Confidence, Talking Points:

  • China’s May CPI rose as expected
  • Food prices surged ahead
  • Australian consumer confidence came in much below forecast

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The Australian Dollar weakened on Wednesday despite Chinese inflation data coming in as the market had expected.

May’s Consumer Price Index rose by 2.7% on the year. That was exactly in-line with forecasts, but it was also the highest print since February 2018. Higher Chinese inflation can have an impact on the Australian Dollar via the channel of its position as the foreign exchange markets’ favorite liquid China proxy. Higher prices could force Beijing to cut back on monetary stimulus, weakening growth and demand.

Food prices were up by 7.7% boosted by higher costs of Chinese staple pork as swine fever continues to hit domestic pig herds. Non-food CPI however was a much more subdued 1.6%

Factory gate prices also rose as expected, with prices up by 0.6% on the year.

AUD/USD slipped nonetheless, although it had already been weakening into the data release.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, 5-Minute Chart

The currency had endured some weak domestic data released an hour earlier. June’s consumer confidence index from major lender Westpac came in well under expectations. It slid by 0.6% from May to 100.7. The base line for this index is 100 so the latest reading means that optimist respondents only outnumber pessimists by a whisker.

On its daily chart AUD/USD remains firmly within the long downtrend channel which has been in place since early 2018. The Aussie weakened steadily as US interest rates rose while Australia’s remained stuck at record lows. More recently the currency has benefitted from an improvement in global risk appetite and expectations that US interest rates could indeed start to fall.

Still, the Reserve Bank of Australia made a rate cut of its own this month, with at least one more expected very shortly.

The Australian Dollar still clearly lacks monetary policy support of its own and, while this is the case, it seems unlikely that that downtrend can be shaken off.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart.

The next hurdle for Australia watchers will be Thursday’s official employment statistics. The RBA has made it plain that this bright spot in the economy is strongly linked to its interest rate thinking.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!





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Brazilian Real, Ibovespa Index Forecast: Major Breakout Ahead?


TALKING POINTS – USDBRL FORECAST, IBOVESPA CHART ANALYSIS, PENSION REFORMS, FED MONETARY POLICY

  • USDBRL is cautiously hovering around key support at 3.85040
  • Ibovespa index re-enters critical resistance range – will it hold?
  • Local retail sales data could introduce additionality volatility

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

USDBRL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In May, USDBRL reached an 8-month high after blasting through the psychological barrier at 4.0000. However, it has since lost over six percent and is now hovering around key support at 3.8504. This followed USDBRL’s break below the January rising support channel (parallel red lines), a serious deviation from the 6-month uptrend.

USDBRL – Daily Chart

Chart Showing USDBRL

The rapidity of USDBRL’s decline – relative to how long it took for the pair to get there – after reaching past 4.0000 is telling. It could be a signal that traders don’t believe that such a high exchange rate is justified given shifts in the fundamental outlook which may be supportive of strength in BRL. These include increased expectations that the Fed will cut rates along with cautious optimism that Brazilian pension reforms will pass.

USDBRL Plunges Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness

Chart Showing USDBRL

IBOVESPA OUTLOOK

The benchmark Ibovespa equity index on June 11 closed at 98960, the highest since March. It also penetrated the lower lip of the 98588.63-100438.87 range (turquoise dotted lines). Despite the significant break, traders may wait for follow-through before committing capital. The next barrier will be the upper range, though touching the 100,000 mark will likely be an inter-range obstacle investors will have to overcome.

If the break is met with follow-through, the index may trade within the price parameters before capitulating or breaking higher. The direction of the index at this critical juncture will either signal that investors are confident in the country’s trajectory – enough so to commit capital – or they believe that the outlook is too bleak to risk gaining or increasing their exposure to it.

IBOVESPA – Daily Chart

Chart Showing Ibovespa

BRAZIL RETAIL SALES DATA

Local retail sales data may have a conflicting impact on BRL and Ibovespa because of how it may influence the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy. A weak reading could increase rate cut expectations from Banco do Brasil, and the prospect of a weaker Real would likely push USDBRL higher while boosting local equities from the prospect of cheaper credit.

However, it is worth noting that a single data point will not alleviate the anxiety investors have over Brazil’s growth trajectory. Monetary authorities have already trimmed GDP forecasts for the year and the uncertainty over global growth and local pension reforms will likely continue to be the dominant themes driving price action in local markets.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter





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Strong China Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Fuel AUDUSD Rate Rebound


Trading the News: China Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Updates to China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may fuel a larger rebound in AUDUSD as the headline reading for inflation is expected to pick up for the third consecutive month.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

A CPI reading of 2.7% or higher may instill an improved outlook for the Asia/Pacific region even though the U.S. and China, Australia’s largest trading partner, struggle to reach a trade deal, and signs of a resilient economy may spark a bullish reaction in the Australian dollar as it encourages the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at the next meeting on July 2.

However, a below-forecast CPI print may push the RBA to further insulate the economy as officials warn that “the downside risks stemming from the trade disputes have increased,” and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may come under pressure to implement another rate cut sooner rather than later as the “latest set of forecasts were prepared on the assumption that the cash rate would follow the path implied by market pricing, which was for the cash rate to be around 1 per cent by the end of the year.

In turn, a print of 2.5% of lower may undermine the recent rebound in AUD/USD, with the Australian dollar at risk of facing a bearish reaction as the weakening outlook for the Asia/Pacific region boosts bets for another RBA rate cut.

Impact that China’s CPI had on AUD/USD during the previous release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

APR

2019

05/09/2019 01:30:00 GMT

2.5%

2.5%

-4

+12

April 2019 China Consumer Price Index (CPI)

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

Image of audusd 5-minute chart

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased for the second consecutive month in April, with the headline reading climbing to 2.5% from 2.3% per annum in March. The Produce Price Index (PPI) showed a similar dynamic, with the reading widening to 0.9% from 0.4% during the same period.

The Australian dollar nudged higher following the pickup in China inflation, but the reaction was short-lived, with AUDUSD largely consolidating throughout the day to close at 0.6989. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart

  • Keep in mind, the AUDUSD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7118), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in April.
  • In turn, AUDUSD remains at risk of giving back the rebound from the 2019-low (0.6745) as the wedge/triangle formation in both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) unravels.
  • Downside targets coming back on the radar for AUDUSD as the recent advance fails to spur a run at the May-high (0.7061), with the near-term outlook capped by the 0.7020 (50% expansion) region.
  • Waiting for a break/close below the 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) pivot to open up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6850 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6880 (23.6% retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around 0.6730 (100% expansion).
  • Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it flashes a bearish signal, with the oscillator finally snapping the upward trend carried over from the previous month.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide.

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.



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NZDUSD Drop Extends on Dollar Gains as GBPUSD Recovers on UK Wages


Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

  • GBPUSD gains as UK wage growth and employment gains surprise better
  • NZDUSD declines extend into a second day as US Dollar generally gains
  • AUDUSD looking to Chinese CPI data after a mixed day on Wall Street

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage for key events listed in theDailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The British Pound outperformed against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, supported by a set of solid UK economic data. Following dismal manufacturing data yesterday, GBPUSD rose after better-than-expected local wage growth in April. The nation also unexpectedly added more jobs than anticipated at +32k, but this pales in comparison to March’s 99k increase.

On the flip side of the spectrum, the pro-risk New Zealand Dollar sunk, extending modest declines into a second day absent a clear catalyst. Its depreciation has been accompanied by a cautious pickup in the higher-yielding US Dollar as July Fed rate cut expectations softened. US front-end government bond yields are aiming narrowly to the upside ever since President Donald Trump canceled tariffs on Mexico.

This perhaps may have been one of the reasons why the S&P 500 trimmed gains it accumulated after Tuesday’s gap following indecisive technical signals as it ended the day 0.03% lower. The index was lead lower today by Boeing (-1.26%) as orders for several 737 Max were canceled. Health care shares also weighed down the index over the past 24 hours.

New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis

NZDUSD finds itself down about 1.2% from Friday’s close after prices were unable to clear highs achieved in late April. The pair still sits above the falling trend line from late March, hovering around 0.6592. Further weakness opens the door to testing 0.6501, but IG Client Positioning is hinting that gains could resume ahead as net-long trades are unwound.

To learn more about using this in your trading, join my webinar each week on Wednesday’s at 00:00 GMT.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZDUSD Drop Extends on Dollar Gains as GBPUSD Recovers on UK Wages

Chart Created in TradingView

Asia Pacific Wednesday Session

S&P 500 futures are little changed heading into Wednesday’s Asia Pacific trading session, hinting of a mixed start to come in regional bourses. The Australian Dollar could be volatile to upcoming Chinese CPI data for May, but recent performance of economic data out of the world’s second-largest economy suggests that outcomes are tending to result closely in-line with analysts’ expectations.

FX Trading Resources

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter





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Trading Reversals with the Harami Candlestick


arrow reversal

Harami Candlestick and Reversal Patterns: Main Talking Points

  • Reversal patterns are very popular in technical trading which can allow traders to capitalise on changes in market trends
  • The Harami candlestick is highly recognisable and can catch a reversal pattern at the most opportune time with tight risk.
  • In this way, Harami reversals can help traders to identify a clear bias and risk points.

One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about real time sentiment in the market. After the pattern is composed with the closing of the signal candle, then you can look to the following candle to identify a clear bias and risk points.

In this article we explore the Harami candlestick and reversal patterns in depth, and how to apply this knowledge to a trading strategy.

Why do traders look out for reversal patterns?

Candlestick trading signals are usually divided into reversal patterns or continuation patterns. Continuation patterns can help traders see when the sentiment is likely to keep the prevailing trend going strong.

Reversal patterns help traders recognize when the sentiment that was behind a trend potentially ceases as the pair flips its direction. The formation of the candles contains the information from buyers and sellers that indicate these potential reversals. Understanding and being able to notice reversal candlestick patterns like the Harami is beneficial for traders in taking advantage of changes in trend.

Using the Harami Candlestick to Catch Reversals

The popularity of the Harami candlestick pattern is due to how it allows traders to catch a reversal at the most opportune time with tight risk. This can lead to very favorable risk-reward ratios. In order to use the Harami to spot reversal patterns, it’s important for traders to understand the origin of the candlestick and how it can be used with other technical tools.

Supporting functions of the Harami

When studying candlestick trading to pinpoint market turning points, traders are quickly introduced to the Doji candlestick. The most common principle and first lesson relates to the appearance of the Doji candlestick, which can often represent apending reversal and an opportune time to enter into a trade.

Although Dojis are only composed of one candle that open and closes at near the same level, and an upper and lower wick out of the body like a “+” sign; the next candle tells the story as to the trade preference you should have.

Once a Doji forms, it’s important to note that using other oscillating indicators or moving averages to find if the pair is in an extreme condition or not. This identifies when candlestick formations are most potent.

The Harami is named because it has the appearance of a ‘pregnant woman’. The first candle is a large candle continuing the immediate trend and the Doji is a small candle protruding like a pregnant woman. The second candle will tell us if the Doji gives life to a reversal or follows the trend with the starting candle.

bearish harami

Harami candlestick reversal pattern example

The chart above shows a Bearish Harami in action on the EUR/CAD currency pair. The daily graph has been in a long-standing established uptrend, but prices have a tendency to retrace along the way. This last retracement was started with the formation of a Harami. With its creation, the market put in its current high then quickly descended 481 pips.

Traders looking to take advantage of the Bearish Harami pattern can add it into any existing trend trading plan. Traders can look to take profits on any existing long trades, or even consider trading a full out reversal once this pattern appears. Regardless of the trading plan, when adding new components to a strategy traders should be tracking results with a trade journal. This way over time traders can gauge the effectiveness of price action and candle analysis in trading.

Read more on Harami Candlesticks and Reversal Trading



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Dow Jones Price Outlook: Index Forfeits Winning Streak


Dow Jones Price Outlook:

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Index Forfeits Winning Streak

The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its 6-day winning streak on Tuesday after an early rally lost steam as the session progressed. During the streak, the Industrial Average climbed roughly 5% to undo some of the pain witnessed during May’s selloff. The Index now boasts a 11.7% return in the year-to-date. As Wednesday approaches, bulls will have to surmount an ascending trendline to the topside around 26,270.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (December 2018 – June 2019) (Chart 1)

dow jones price chart outlook

The February-based trendline provided buoyancy throughout the first quarter before price broke beneath. Since then, it has provided a barrier to topside moves, refuting moves on Monday and Tuesday. Should bullishness return and the trendline is dispensed, the Index may set its sights on 26,500 before targeting May highs. Below the current Index price, 25,800 will look to provide support – before secondary levels around 25,500 come into play.

Many market commentators asserted trade war remarks made by President Trump early in the session were behind the rally’s burnout, but as is often the case, multiple factors were at play. Aside from trade wars, Boeing (BA) announced several 737 Max cancellations during May – denting revenue forecasts for the Industrial Average’s largest component.

dow jones top stocks

Tangentially, aircraft manufacturer United Technologies (UTX) shed nearly -4% after announcing it will merge with Raytheon. Together, the two companies weighed on the Dow – undoing minor gains from Caterpillar (CAT), Cisco (CSCO) and Apple (AAPL). With a relatively dry week for data, the Dow Jones will continue to weigh broader-economic themes with single-stock concerns heading into Wednesday. That said, IG clients are convinced June’s equity rebound is overdone.

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Index Forfeits Winning Streak

Retail trader data shows 33.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.03 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since June 3 when the Dow Jones traded near 25362.0; price has moved 2.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.2% higher than yesterday and 12.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.6% higher than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Wall Street prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. As market themes unfold and traders reposition accordingly, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for technical and fundamental updates equity markets.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: USO & BIL ETF Demand Driven by Oil Recovery, Rate Cut Odds

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.





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Australian Dollar Battle Lines Drawn


In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The Aussie recovery failed at major resistance against the US Dollar last week with our focus on the near-term pullback in price. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly - Aussie Outlook

Notes: In my latest Aussie Price Outlook we noted that, “a breach / close above 6972 is needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting the yearly low-day close at 7005– look for a bigger reaction there IF reached” A brief stint into the 50% retracement of the yearly range failed post-NFPs on Friday with price closing the week below the figure.

Key weekly resistance remains at 7020/42 with a breach above the June 2018 resistance slope (currently ~7080s) needed to validate a larger turn in price. Support rests at the 61.8% retracement of the May advance (also the May 20th reversal-week close) at 6925. A downside break of this formation (currently around ~6900) would once again keep the 2016 low / low-week close into focus at 6827/55– look for a more significant reaction there IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Aussie turned from a major resistance confluence last week and IF prices are indeed heading higher, losses should be limited to the lower parallel. From a trading standpoint, look for a support on a move lower to offer more favorable entries with a topside breach above channel resistance needed to shift the broader focus higher. Review my latest AUD/USD Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term Aussie trading levels.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Positioning - Aussie Price Chart

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD – the ratio stands at +1.84 (64.8% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since April 18th; price has moved 2.9% lower since then
  • Long positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 8.0% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 14.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Aussie may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Key Australia / US Data Releases

Australia / US Data Releases - Economic Calendar

Economic Calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex





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Litecoin Price Surges to Yearly Highs as Crypto Rally Continues


Litecoin Price Outlook:

Litecoin Price Surges to Yearly Highs as Crypto Rally Continues

Cryptocurrencies look to continue their formidable run in 2019 with Litecoin the latest to pick up the torch – and the headlines. As one of the best performing digital assets in the year-to-date, and by a large margin for the largest five, Litecoin pressed to yearly highs on Monday and Tuesday. With LTCUSD near $130, the coin has enjoyed a 300% climb in 2019.

Cryptocurrencies Continue to Shine

Litecoin Price Surges to Yearly Highs as Crypto Rally Continues

Data Source: TradingView

After surging through the 23.6% Fib level around $116, LTCUSD attacked $130 – an area which marks the swing high from June 2018. Evidently, resistance has been staged and a daily close above the level would bolster bullish sentiment. Immediate support now resides at the 23.6% level with $100 offering secondary support. Tertiary support can be found slightly beneath around $84 which offered buoyancy in May.

Litecoin Price Chart (LTCUSD): Daily Time Frame (May 2018 – June 2019)

Litecoin price chart (LTCUSD)

While cryptocurrency acceptance and deteriorating emerging market currencies have likely contributed to Litecoin’s incredible year, LTCUSD has single-coin event risk on the horizon which could be influencing its performance.

On August 8, the reward for mining on Litecoin’s blockchain will be halved from 25 coins per block to 12.5 coins – effectively increasing the time it takes to produce a single coin. “Halvings” have been associated with rallies in the past, but past performance is not indicative of future results – and the history of cryptocurrency trading is especially limited. With that in mind, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for technical and fundamental updates on LTC and other cryptos.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: USO & BIL ETF Demand Driven by Oil Recovery, Rate Cut Odds

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.





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