EUR Technical Analysis Overview: EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP

EUR Analysis and Talking Points

  • EURUSD | Contained Price Action Likely to Persist
  • EURJPY | Key Fib Support Continues to Hold
  • EURGBP | Upside Correction Yet to Be Confirmed

EURUSD | Contained Price Action Likely to Persist

Range trading for EURUSD likely to persist amid the low volatility seen in the pair. Alongside this, while momentum indicators remain bearish, trend signals however, are relatively weak. Consequently, this suggests a lack of high conviction in the bearish sentiment and thus price remains somewhat contained. Support in the near-term remain situated at 1.1230-50, while topside resistance from 1.1375-80 may cap any rallies in the pair.

EURUSD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Jan 2018 – Mar 2019)

EUR Technical Analysis Overview: EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP

Chart by IG

EURJPY | Key Fib Support Continues to Hold

A modest pullback since reaching overbought territory in EURJPY, which in turn sees the cross holding key support at 126.18 (50% Fibonacci retracement). As such, with bullish momentum indicators easing, eyes are on for a closing break below the key fib support, which could see EURJPY extend a move towards the 125.00 handle. Topside resistance is situated at 126.70 (100DMA) before the March 1st high at 127.50.

EURJPY PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Feb 2017– Mar 2019)

EUR Technical Analysis Overview: EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP

Chart by IG

EURGBP | Upside Correction Yet to Be Confirmed

Marginal gains for EURGBP as it edges above the 0.8600 handle. The bullish divergence formed on Feb 27th has eased the negative momentum in the cross. However, eyes will be on for the RSI to move above 50-54 to confirm a corrective move to the upside in the cross. Consequently, topside resistance at 0.8670 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the 0.8700 is in focus.

EURGBP PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Nov 2018 – Mar 2019)

EUR Technical Analysis Overview: EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP

Chart by IG

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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USD/JPY Pulls Back Ahead of NFP Report on Fed’s Wait-and-See Guidance

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY pulls back from the monthly-high (112.14) even as data prints coming out of the U.S. instill an improved outlook for the economy, and exchange rate may continue to consolidate ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as it snaps the series of higher highs & lows from the previous week.

Image of daily change for major currencies

USD/JPY Pulls Back Ahead of NFP Report on Fed’s Wait-and-See Guidance

Image of daily change for usdjpy rate

The USD/JPY advance following the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report appears to be stalling as Federal Reserve officials continue to tame bets for higher interest rates, and it seems as though the central bank will defend the wait-and-see approach at the next rate decision on March 20 as the Trump administration struggles to reach a trade deal with China.

Recent remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), suggest the central bank will continue to alter the forward-guidance amid the ‘downturn in global growth, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the effects of tighter financial conditions,’ and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may start to taper the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) over the coming months as ‘the Committee can now evaluate the appropriate timing and approach for the end of balance sheet runoff.’

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

However, the FOMC may have a difficult time in defending the wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as U.S. Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly narrows to 223K from a revised 226K in the week ending February 23, with Continuing Claims highlighting a similar dynamic as the figure slips to 1755K from 1805K in the week ending February 16. The slowdown in claims for unemployment benefits bodes well for the NFP report, which is anticipated to show the U.S. economy adding another 180K in February, and a positive development may heighten the appeal of the dollar as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to squeeze in a rate-hike later this year.

With that said, it remains to be seen if Fed officials will adjust the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at the March meeting as the central bank pledges to be ‘data dependent,’ but recent price action in USD/JPY raises the risk for a larger pullback as the exchange rate snaps the series of higher highs & lows from the previous week. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Image of usdjpy daily chart

  • Near-term outlook for USD/JPY remains constructive as both price and the RSI continue to track the upward trends from earlier this year, but the correction following the currency market flash-crash appears to be sputtering amid the lack of momentum to test the Fibonacci overlap around 112.40 (61.8% retracement) to 113.00 (38.2% expansion).
  • As a result, failure to hold above the 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.80 (23.6% expansion) region raises the risk for a move back towards 109.40 (50% retracement) to 110.00 (78.6% expansion), which largely lines up with channel support, with the next downside region of interest coming in around 108.30 (61.8% retracement) to 108.40 (100% expansion).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q1 2019 Forecast for the Japanese Yen

Additional Trading Resources

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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USD/ZAR Has Biggest Monthly Gain Since August

USD/ZAR price action talking points:

  • Since January 31, USDZAR has been advancing in impulsive waves while correcting in three waves
  • The pattern appears incomplete to the upside
  • Target of 14.85 while holding above 13.80

USDZAR Elliott wave pattern appears incomplete for bulls

USDZAR has increased aggressively from the January 31 low. We can count this move as a bullish impulse wave with an extended fifth wave. After an impulse wave completes with an extended fifth wave, many times the correction walks back into the price territory for wave ii of (v). In the case of USD/ZAR, that price territory is from 13.70-13.85. After forming a bottom at 13.80 on February 25, USDZAR has resumed with another bullish impulse wave.

Now that the pattern of impulse advances followed by corrective declines is established we will maintain a bullish bias so long as USDZAR remains above 13.7985.

The RSI divergence coming into the recent high tips the hand that this smaller impulse wave is nearing an end. Therefore, it would be considered normal for USDZAR to correct back towards 14.00-14.10. If such a correct takes place, we will look for bullish symptoms to emerge.

usdzar price chart with elliott wave labels forecasting a further uptrend.

USDZAR Medium Term Targets

If this analysis is correct and if USD/ZAR continues its push higher, a couple of resistance levels include 14.45 and 14.85. These levels are derived by calculating the distance of the January 31 to February 14 wave with the Fibonacci extension tool and projecting a .618 or equal wave measurement from the February 25 low. We know from our Elliott wave studies that alternating waves tend to have Fibonacci or equal wave proportions.

USDZAR bottom line

USDZAR may dip to the lower 14’s to correct the recent advance. A bullish bias is maintained while holding above 13.80 with a bullish hot spot on a dip to 14.10 or a breakout above recent highs.

—Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy Wagner is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master’s designation. These articles are designed to illustrate Elliott Wave applied to the current market environment. See Jeremy’s bio page for recent Elliott Wave articles to see Elliott Wave Theory in action.

How can I learn more about Elliott wave?

We have a beginners and advanced Elliott wave trading guides. Print off those guides and study the patterns. The two most comment patterns are impulse waves and zigzags. By understanding their structure and common Fibonacci relationships, you’ll have a great start to learning Elliott wave.

After reviewing the guides above, be sure to follow future Elliott Wave articles to see Elliott Wave Theory in action.

Not sure if Elliott wave is right for you? Believe it or not, when I first started trading I couldn’t understand why technical analysis worked. Now, I’m 100% technical through Elliott wave. Learn more about how Jeremy got started into Elliott wave from this podcast interview with DailyFX’s Global Markets Decoded.

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Euro Drops as ECB Announces Fresh Round of TLTRO’s

Euro Talking Points:

The European Central Bank announced a fresh round of TLTRO’s this morning, set to begin in September of 2019, running until March of 2021. The ECB also lowered growth forecasts while extending expectations for a possible rate hike. This has kicked off a bearish move in the single currency, with short-term sellers pushing deeper into the longer-term support zone in EURUSD. Also of note is EURJPY, as the pair is selling-off after spending most of the past two months recovering from the early-year spill below the 120-handle.

– The week isn’t done yet: The economic calendar brings US and Canadian jobs numbers tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM ET and given the response in USDCAD to yesterday’s BoC rate decision, the potential for continued volatility remains.

– DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euroand are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Euro Drops as ECB Announces Fresh Round of TLTRO’s

This morning saw the European Central Bank announce a fresh round of stimulus via TLTRO’s, which is short for ‘Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations.’ The bank will launch the program in September of this year, designed to run in to March of 2021. The ECB also updated their growth forecasts and rate guidance this morning, lowering expectations for 2019 growth from a prior 1.7% to 1.1% – marking a big change. The ECB also said that they’re expecting to keep rates at present levels through the end of 2019, whereas previously the ECB had said rates should remain at current levels ‘at least through the summer of 2019.’

Near immediately, odds for the next hike out of Europe moved out to September of 2020 while odds for a 10 basis point hike in 2019 dropped from 40% to 20%.

The single currency is still pricing-in this morning’s news as evidenced from the fact that prices are falling further into the longer-term support zone, as was discussed in yesterday’s article in the event of such an announcement. The big question is for how long this might run, and whether or not the almost four-month old range breaks later today. At this stage, sellers are pushing towards the 1.1250 psychological level that helped to arrest the February declines.

EURUSD Hourly Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On slightly longer-term basis, the almost four-month old range formation remains in EURUSD. Will this morning’s announcement be the catalyst that gives bears the juice they need to finally break-down below this support? Or – will the range continue hold, much as it has over the past four months through a variety of potentially bearish-Euro drivers?

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On a longer-term basis, a break of that range brings into play an interesting area around the 1.1200-handle, as 1.1186 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017 bullish run in EURUSD, while 1.1212 is the 61.8% retracement of the 2000-2008 major move. A drop below this zone opens the door for a test of the 1.1000 psychological level, followed by a zone of prior swing support/resistance around the 76.4 and 78.6% retracements around 1.0814-1.0863.

EURUSD Weekly Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd weekly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURJPY Posts Precipitous Drop From Last week’s 127.50 Resistance Test

EURJPY has already had an interesting year and we’re not even through Q1 yet. This was my ‘Top Trade Idea for 2019,’ looking for more downside in the pair after last year’s build of a range inside of a longer-term range.

The pair plummeted into the New Year, testing below the 119.00 handle in the opening days of 2019. But, since then, EURJPY has spent much of the time recovering, building into a bear flag formation that was looked at last week. But on Friday prices ran into a key area of resistance at 127.50, as this was the support side of the range that had built during Q4. After that resistance was tested last Friday, prices have been on a course reversal, and given the source of the move with an announcement of fresh QE from the ECB, there may be scope for more.

EURJPY Daily Price Chart

eurjpy eur/jpy daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

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If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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EURUSD Drops as ECB Announce TLTROs and Alters Rate Guidance

ECB Talking Points

  • EURUSD Drops to Session Lows
  • TLTROs to Begin From Sep 2019

ECB Announces Fresh Stimulus and Alters Rate Guidance

EURUSD fell 30pips to session lows of 1.1273 after the ECB announced that they will be delivering fresh stimulus in the form of TLTRO 111, which will be starting from September 2019 and ending in March 2021. Alongside this, the central bank has also updated their rate guidance, having stated that “the Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, from the “end of summer 2019”.

What Are TLTROs

TLTROs – The ECB’s Other Stimulus Tool

Money Markets Push Back Rate Hike Expectations

As it stands, markets now see a a 20% likelihood of a 10bps rate hike this year, down from 40%.

Please add a description for the image.

EURUSD PRICE CHART: 1-Minutes Time Frame (Intra-day)

EURUSD Drops as ECB Announce TLTROs and Alters Rate Guidance

For a more in-depth analysis on EUR, check out the Q1 Forecast for EUR

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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Sterling (GBP) Remains Stable Despite ’Difficult’ Brexit Talks

GBPUSD Price, Volatility and Brexit Latest:

  • Talks between the UK and EU have been described as ‘difficult’ and ‘robust’.
  • Sterling refuses to break lower but downside risks remain.

Q1 2019 GBP Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

The latest talks between the EU and UK over the Irish border problem have been described as ‘difficult’, hardly a ringing endorsement of any progress being made between the two sides. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that discussions have been difficult and that no solution has been found that is ‘consistent with the withdrawal agreement’. The EU have repeatedly said that this agreement will not be re-opened, leaving the two sides at an impasse over the Irish border. According to the PM’s official spokesman, while the EU continue to say that it wants a Brexit deal, Parliament has been clear that for this to happen, ‘we require legally-binding changes which mean that the UK can’t be trapped in the backstop indefinitely’. The UK described recent talks as ‘robust’ but ongoing.

Next week, PM May faces a meaningful vote on her current plan by Tuesday, which if defeated will then see the PM on Wednesday ask the House whether they want to keep a No-Deal Brexit on the table. If this is passed, and No-Deal is taken off the table, the House will vote on extending discussions and pushing back the current departure date, March 29.

GBPUSD continues to trade around 1.3150 with any sell-off being taken as an opportunity to buy cable. Sterling has also held up well across arrange of currencies, as traders continue to believe that a hard Brexit is not going to happen. The worry is that these hopes may be dashed, unlikely but still a possibility, leaving Sterling vulnerable to a sharp sell-off.

The daily classic pivot points show pivot at 1.3159 with initial resistance (R1) at 1.3193 and initial support (S1) at 1.3136.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (June 2018 – March 7, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Remains Stable Despite 'Difficult' Brexit Talks

Retail traders are 50.5% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a mildly-bearish contrarian indicator. Recent changes in daily and weekly sentiment however currently suggest a mixed trading bias for GBPUSD.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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FTSE Technical Analysis – Back Near Confluent Resistance, Range to Persist

FTSE Technical Highlights:

  • FTSE bounce has confluent resistance back in sights
  • Market expected to range for the time-being

Get your forecasts today for the FTSE and Pound right here on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

FTSE bounce has confluent resistance back in sights

The FTSE’s multi-day rally has it back near resistance by way of a couple of points, price resistance dating back to September, most recently in play last month, and the 200-day MA. This confluence in the 7260-area is seen as keeping a lid on the upside.

It’s been a month since the FTSE has made any more progress since rallying sharply off the December low. The general trading conditions are tight and will likely be so until we see what develops further out the ‘Brexit’ situation next week.

On the downside range support clocks around 7060/40, and not far below there lies the channel line off the December low, along with the possibility of also seeing that in confluence with small peak in January if the timing is right.

The overall trend is still higher since bottoming and has yet to show signs that the market wants to roll over, but momentum is lacking and uncertainty is high. For now, risk/reward is unfavorable for directional bets, and conditions are likely to favor range-fades at support and resistance.

Check out this guide for 4 ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

FTSE Daily Chart (Range conditions to persist)

FTSE daily chart, range conditions to persist

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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EURUSD, AUDUSD & AUDJPY Charts Remain Tilted Lower

Struggling right now? It happens to the best. Check out these four core ideas to help boost your Confidence as a Trader.

EURUSD rising wedge broke, still room to the downside

This is an update from last week: The Euro broke the rising wedge noted on the 4-hr chart, but the price decline so far has been muted with low-volatility trading conditions dominating. There is still room to go, though, before support in the vicinity above 11200 perhaps puts in another floor. It’s a little late to be putting on a swing-trade based on the pattern break, but the short-term trading bias remains tilted in favor of sellers.

Looking for Trading Forecasts and Education to assist you in your trading? We’ve got you covered on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

EURUSD Daily Chart (A bit more room to support)

EURUSD daily chart, a bit more room to support

AUDUSD Head-and-shoulders support expected to break soon

This is a pattern we have been tracking for the past couple of weeks, with the head and right shoulder developing at downtrend resistance. Aussie is currently putting in a small bounce off neckline support, which keeps the pattern from officially triggering just yet. But a close below the neckline should have AUDUSD rolling downhill towards testing flash-crash levels from Jan 2. I stress close below the neckline because it is support until it isn’t and it’s not officially a H&S pattern until the neckline is snapped.

AUDUSD Daily Chart (H&S pattern testing neckline)

AUDUSD daily chart, H&S pattern testing neckline

AUDJPY ascending wedge broke

This is a good example of why one needs to wait for the breakout of a pattern before running with a bias. The ascending nature of the wedge pattern hinted at increased potential for a bullish breakout, but indeed that is not what we got as yesterday AUDJPY broke to the downside. While it is altogether possible in this low-vol environment it is a fake-out, I will run with the downward bias as long as we don’t see a strong push back inside the pattern around 7950 or higher. The first target is the wedge pattern low at 7740, followed by the flash-crash daily close at 7541 and worse.

AUDJPY Daily Chart (Bearish wedge break)

AUDJPY daily chart, bearish wedge break

Also, on the ‘short’ list is AUDNZD.

***Updates will be provided on these ideas and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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EUR Price to Rise if There is no Mention of TLTROs

ECB meeting, EUR price and analysis:

  • The European Central Bank will leave all its key interest rates unchanged today, Thursday, and is unlikely to change its forward guidance.
  • That means attention will center on likely downgrades to its economic growth and inflation forecasts by the ECB staff, and on whether it will signal a new round of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations.
  • If it fails to do so, that could lead to a firmer Euro.

Markets focus on new round of TLTROs

The European Central Bank will likely announce today, Thursday, that it is keeping all its key interest rates unchanged and will almost certainly make no change in its forward guidance that rates will be left where they are “at least through the summer of 2019”.

That means traders should focus on likely lower economic growth and inflation forecasts and on whether the ECB statement at 1245 GMT, or the subsequent press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi at 1330 GMT, includes a reference to a new round of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations. If not, a rise in the Euro price could follow.

TLTROs are a way of providing cheap funding to banks to encourage them to boost economic activity by lending more and you can read more about them here.

Eurozone growth forecasts

Taking the ECB’s forecasts first, recent evidence suggests the Eurozone economy is weakening. The OECD inter-governmental think tank predicted Wednesday that GDP growth in the region would be just 1.0% in 2019, down from 1.8% in 2018 and below its previous projection of a same-again 1.8%. Its prediction for 2020 was lowered to 1.2% from 1.6%.

OECD Cuts Global Economic Growth Forecasts Again

Earlier this week, the composite purchasing managers’ index for the Eurozone in February suggested the region would struggle in the first quarter to beat the sickly 0.2% expansion seen in the fourth quarter of last year.

IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI and GDP

Eurozone composite PMI and GDP.

Arguably, however, this economic weakness is already priced in to the Euro price so instead traders should focus on whether the ECB signals a new round of TLTROs. No launch is expected to be announced before April or even June, with the ECB likely to be in “wait and see” mode until then – especially as the central bank’s asset-purchase program only ended in December.

Both are designed to loosen monetary policy, TLTROs doing so by injecting money into the financial system to boost growth and inflation. However, the markets are still expecting the ECB to signal that they are now on the agenda and a failure to do so would likely reverse the downtrend in EURUSD in place since the end of last month.

EURUSD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (February 28 – March 7, 2019)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Either way, though, slower than previously expected GDP growth means the interest rate outlook is now bearish so a dovish shift by the ECB is likely eventually – making a downward move in the Euro a distinct possibility longer-term.

Using News and Events to Trade Forex

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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Euro, Yen and Aussie Dollar May All Find Fuel in ECB Rate Decision


  • All eyes on the ECB policy announcement, forecast downgrade expected
  • Clues on the likely stimulus expansion timing may be most market-moving
  • Impact to extend past Euro to broader risk trends, Yen and Aussie Dollar

The ECB monetary policy announcement headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. A change in stance is not expected this time around, but traders seem primed for a sharp downgrade of official economic forecasts to set the stage for further easing in the months ahead. As for the likely vehicle, the consensus view appears to favor round of TLTRO liquidity injections into the banking sector.

A large downward adjustment in growth and inflation projections seems to be all but priced in at this point and may not translate into a significant response from price action by itself. Rather, traders will weigh the tone at the post-announcement presser with ECB President Draghi to gauge the likely timing of stimulus expansion. An apparent sense of urgency is likely to weigh on the Euro while hesitation may give it a bit of a lift.

The central bank’s disposition may also prove formative for broader sentiment trends. Worries about slowing global growth have consumed investors recently. With that in mind, the sense that the ECB will offer support relatively sooner rather than later may buoy risk appetite, boosting the cycle-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars and punishing the Yen. Indecision may translate into the opposite result.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!


Asia Pacific Trade Economic Calendar


Europe Trade Economic Calendar

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.


— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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