Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis
- US Q1 GDP will make or break current US dollar strength.
- GBPUSD at support and still oversold.
Forex Markets Wait for US Q1 GDP
The Friday European morning session ahead of major US data releases is normally a quiet time, and today is no exception as traders step back from position taking ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP. As always, the devil is in the detail with one bank noting that today’s release includes data from a 35-day government shutdown period, so if Q1 2019 q/q GDP expectations of 2.2% – 2.3% are met, the US economy may be stronger than the headline figure shows.
Against this backdrop, GBPUSD remains either side of 1.2900 and propped up by 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2894. Cable broke below this level Thursday but then retraced higher, while today’s price action is limited and just above. Another break lower, and a close below this level, leaves GBPUSD vulnerable to a further sell-off down to the February 14 swing-low at 1.2771. Any sell-off may be tempered by the CCI indicator which continues to flash an oversold warning.
To the upside, prior support around 1.2960, and the 200-day moving average at 1.2969, make up the first zone of resistance.
GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – April 26, 2019)
Retail traders are 71.6% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. See how recent daily and weekly positional changes have changed our sentiment to a bullish GBPUSD bias.